H1 2026: A Strong Start for Indian Agro Exports
The first half of FY 2025-26 delivered encouraging results for India's agricultural export sector, with total shipments reaching $26.8 billion — a 12% year-on-year improvement that signals a recovery from the policy-constrained environment of 2022-24. Rice exports led the recovery, benefiting from the phased removal of export duties on parboiled rice. The spices sector maintained its structural growth trajectory, with $2.4 billion in H1 exports representing an 18% increase. Marine products, coffee, and tea also posted strong gains, collectively contributing $5.1 billion. India's agro export infrastructure continued to improve, with 22 new cold chain logistics hubs becoming operational.
Commodity-Wise H1 Performance Deep Dive
Basmati rice exports reached $3.2 billion in H1, with Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq as top destinations and average realizations rising 8% to $1,050/MT FOB. Non-basmati rice shipped 5.8 million MT valued at $2.8 billion. Spice exports outperformed all forecasts, with turmeric achieving its highest-ever H1 shipment of 92,000 MT driven by bullish demand from Bangladesh, UAE, and the US. The oil meals and oilseeds sector contributed $1.9 billion, with castor oil and sesame seeds being standout performers. Pulses exports showed modest improvement with chickpea shipments reaching 85,000 MT under special export quotas.
Global buyers should plan H2 2026 procurement early, as Indian spice prices are expected to firm 5–10% on strong domestic demand during the October-December festival season. Rice buyers should monitor government policy announcements in September for further relaxation of non-basmati export restrictions.
H2 2026 Outlook: Opportunities and Risk Factors
The H2 2026 forecast projects total FY agro exports reaching $55 billion, which would represent a new record and 14% improvement over FY 2024-25. Key growth drivers include expected full normalization of rice export policy by Q3, continued strong spice demand, and new market access agreements with Australia, Canada, and several African nations. Risk factors include potential El Niño conditions affecting rabi crop output, increasingly stringent EU pesticide MRLs, and persistent Red Sea shipping disruptions adding $800–1,200/container in freight costs. Currency dynamics — the rupee's stability at 84–86 against the US dollar — has been broadly supportive of export competitiveness. Radiance Overseas remains optimistic about the H2 outlook across our core product lines of spices, rice, oilseeds, and dry fruits.